There are many factors to take into consideration regarding how well a blockbuster sequel will do at the movies, especially MIB3:
Will people be remembering the excellent original, or will they recall the disappointment of the first sequel? Based on reviews, it would seem that MIB3 will be somewhere between the first two in terms of audience satisfaction.
International markets love big, loud, easy to understand movies. But they tend to prefer action over comedy, and will they understand the time travel aspect? Plus, is Will Smith a big star outside of the USA?
Timing. They’ve probably got this aspect down perfect. The Avengers was universally loved, and cinema-goers could just presume the second big blockbuster of the season will be just as good.
Publicity. Will Smith slapping a reporter will probably help, because we love his cheekiness.
Here’s a prediction for this weekend’s USA box office from Screen Crave:
- MIB3 – $58.3 Million
- The Avengers - $32.8 Million
- Battleship – $12 Million
- Chernobyl Diaries – $9 Million
- The Dictator – $8.5 Million
They say that the mystery will be MIB3, which could conceivably surge as high as $100 Million this weekend, and a total of $200 Million domestically. They also guesstimate that a $600 Million gross worldwide would be needed for it to break even. Wow!